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Title Week 18_United States-China Trade War 2024_20240504
Report Type Báo cáo tuần
Source BSC
Bussiness HOSTC
Detail Date : 04/05/2024
Total pages : 18
Language : English
File Type : .PDF
FileSize : 2288 Kb
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Short Content

Vietnam Stock market

VN-Index recovers after sell-off week
The VN-Index saw a 3% increase, recovering over one-third of the previous week’s losses. The breadth of gains was not overwhelming but was much more positive than the previous week, with 70% of stocks and 12 out of 18 sectors declining. Positive international markets, stable investor sentiment, and foreign investors returning to net buy USD 22 million were factors supporting the VN-Index’s bounce from the support zone. Sector movements are gradually differentiating based on Q1 business results, with sectors that had positive performance such as technology, retail, tourism & entertainment increasing over 3%, while media, real estate, and utilities decreased over 1.5%. The season for Q1 business results and annual general meetings is entering its final phase. The market will enter an information trough, so investors need to be cautious in trading, taking advantage of the upturn sessions to reduce their holding ratio to a safe level to be flexible in the face of unpredictable short-term fluctuations.
According to FiinPro data, as of April 26, 2024, 707 companies, equivalent to 42% of the companies across the three exchanges, have announced their Q1 business results. The total market’s net profit growth was at 14.2%. Specifically, on HSX and HNX, 61.2% of companies have reported with a net profit growth of 19.1%. 15 out of 30 VN30 stocks grew 24.7% while 10 out of 23 Banks grew 13.5%. Across the two exchanges, 85.4% of companies were profitable and 74% of companies had positive growth. The group of companies with the largest absolute profit growth compared to the same period includes HPG, TCB, VPB, LPB, and VIC, while MBB, REE, VSH, NT2, and ACB experienced negative growth. The season for announcing Q1 business results has passed more than halfway with relatively positive results in line with the macroeconomic recovery.
 
Global Stock market
The U.S. stock market experienced significant fluctuations ahead of macroeconomic news during a week of gains
The U.S. GDP for Q1 reached 1.6%, lower than the forecasted 2.4%, while the PCE increased by 3.4%, significantly higher than the previous quarter’s 1.8%, which took away from the early week’s gains thanks to a positive earnings announcement season. The U.S. stock indices saw an average increase of 2.2%. This trend was in line with key European and Asian indices, with the EU600 up 1.2%, and the Nikkei 225 up 2.2%. Economic data led to a 0.4% decrease in the DXY, supporting a 0.8% increase in the commodity index. Oil and natural gas were two commodities that saw good increases, while precious metals like gold and silver decreased by 2% and 3.7%, respectively. Next week, the FED will have its May session, and the market will await the message as the U.S. economy shows less favorable signs of growth and inflation.
The Bank of America report takes a pessimistic view of Asian currencies and suggests that this marks the beginning of an ‘era of chaos.’ Many regional currencies have fallen to low levels as the USD has risen, influenced by the FED’s postponement of interest rate cuts. The exchange rate has fallen to a four-year low, and the Central Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly raised its 7-day repo rate, overnight deposit, and lending rates by 0.25%. The Rupiah has fallen 4% since the beginning of the year, and the interest rate hike decision aims to consolidate the stability of the domestic currency in the face of worsening global risks. The pressure to devalue the domestic currency is also occurring in many Asian countries, creating significant pressure on the policy management of regional central banks.
 
NEXT WEEK'S NOTE
• The first quarter AGM and Business Performance season of enterprises entered the final phase.
• Announcement of macroeconomic indicators in April 2024
• April 29, CPI Germany, France and Spain. April 30, Retail Sales and Unemployment Rate; China PMI; EU CPI; Canadian GDP; US consumer confidence index. 1/5, PMI Japan, Canada, USA; U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls and Crude Oil Reserves. 2/5, Interest rates and FOMC minutes of the May meeting, applications for US unemployment benefits. 3/5, EU and US unemployment rates.