Week 19_Keeping Investment Proportions at a Safe Level

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Title	Week 19_Keeping Investment Proportions at a Safe Level_20240504
Report Type	Báo cáo tuần
Source	BSC
Bussiness	HOSTC
Detail	Date : 10/05/2024 Total pages : 15 Language : English File Type : .PDF FileSize : 1748 Kb Download: 23 Download
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Short Content	Vietnam Stock market VN-Index maintains recovery momentum during the ETF restructuring week Maintaining the recovery trend before the holiday season, the VN-Index increased by 1% in two trading sessions. 56% of stocks and 15 out of 18 sectors rose during the ETF portfolio restructuring week. Foreign investors’ net selling and low liquidity led to unclear sector movements. However, stocks traded by ETFs and with outstanding Q1 business results are still experiencing superior fluctuations compared to the general trend. The Q1 business results announcement season has essentially concluded and is not as optimistic as forecasted (82% of companies on HSX and HNX reported a net profit growth of 5.9% year-over-year; 87% reported profits, but only 54.6% had positive growth. The VN30 companies decreased by 2.8% year-over-year while 23 banks increased by 8.3%). The market will enter a low-information period in the coming weeks, and we continue to believe that investors should be cautious with new transactions, taking advantage of the rising sessions to reduce their holding proportion to a safe level. According to FiinPro data, as of April 26, 2024, 707 companies, equivalent to 42% of the companies across the three exchanges, have announced their Q1 business results. The total market’s net profit growth was at 14.2%. Specifically, on HSX and HNX, 61.2% of companies have reported with a net profit growth of 19.1%. 15 out of 30 VN30 stocks grew 24.7% while 10 out of 23 Banks grew 13.5%. Across the two exchanges, 85.4% of companies were profitable and 74% of companies had positive growth. The group of companies with the largest absolute profit growth compared to the same period includes HPG, TCB, VPB, LPB, and VIC, while MBB, REE, VSH, NT2, and ACB experienced negative growth. The season for announcing Q1 business results has passed more than halfway with relatively positive results in line with the macroeconomic recovery. Global Stock market The US stock market recovers after the worst losing month since September 2022 The US stock indices ended April with an average decline of 4.3%. However, the market had a recovery session on May 2nd, ending a three-session losing streak and narrowing the average loss to 0.2%. The European and Asian stock markets saw slight increases, with the EU600 up 0.4% and the Nikkei 225 up 1.6%. The Chinese stock market maintained a recovery of 2.8% after positive economic data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) and the US 10-year Treasury bonds had another week of decline, with -0.7% and -0.1%, respectively. The commodity index suddenly dropped sharply by -4.2%, with widespread declines across many commodities. Oil and natural gas fell over -5% while precious metals decreased on average by -2%. Agricultural commodities such as wheat, coffee, cotton, and cocoa fell from -4% to -24%. The markets are experiencing complex movements ahead of unpredictable news in the short term. The FED has maintained the interest rate at the level of 5.25% - 5.5% and will begin to reduce the balance sheet starting from June 2024. The FOMC emphasized the lack of progress on inflation and does not expect to cut interest rates until it is confident that inflation is cooling down towards the sustainable target of 2%. The US economy continues to grow strongly, along with stability in the job market. The FED Chairman also ruled out the possibility of raising interest rates at the policy meeting in June and dismissed concerns about stagflation. The FED plans to reduce $25 billion of government bonds maturing each month without reinvestment from the current level of $60 billion. The reduction in the pace of quantitative tightening is a slightly more relaxed move compared to the current monetary policy. NEXT WEEK'S NOTE • The market enters a low-information period as the annual general meeting season and the Q1 business results have essentially concluded • Announcement of macroeconomic indicators in April 2024 • May 6th, PMI China, EU. May 7th, interest rates and monetary policy meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia; EU retail sales. May 8th, China trade balance; US crude oil reserves. May 9th, China’s M2 money supply, new loans; Bank of England interest rates and monetary policy meeting minutes; US unemployment claims. May 10th, UK industrial production index, trade balance, GDP; Canada unemployment rate.