Title BSC Vietnam Sector Outlook 3Q2023_EN
Report Type Phân tích ngành
Source BSC
Detail Date : 14/08/2023
Total pages : 95
Language : English
File Type : .PDF
FileSize : 7402 Kb
Download: 142
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Short Content

Dear Value Investors,  

Over the years, BSC often provides investment topics, general assessment of possible opportunities, helping investors to have more options throughout the year. The year 2023 is forecasted to face many difficulties with the global economic growth being forecast to slow down. BSC continues to raise issues that will have great influence and lead the market in 2023, including:

  1. Revise of GDP Growth Forecast to 5.0% under Positive Scenario and 3.7% under Negative Scenario compared to the Initial Positive Scenario of 6.7% in early 2023
  2. Promoting the state capital disbursement and public investment in 2H2023 will play an important role in recovering and growing the economy from 2023 to 2025
  3. The number of newly opened Jul,2023 accounts recovered sharply compared to Q1/2023, to the highest level in the latest 11 months
  4. Foreign net transaction value slows down in Q2/2023
  5. Profit growth in Q2/2023 continues to experience a decline of -16.9% compared to the same period, although the downward trend has shown signs of slowing down compared to Q1/2023 (-19.6%). The total profits of VN-Index enterprises in Q2/2023 reached approximately 77,401 billion VND (-16.9% YoY). 
  6. Accordingly, BSC's forecasted profit growth rate of the whole market may reach 6.0% growth under a positive scenario. 
  7. The slowdown in earnings growth in Q2/2023 makes market valuations less attractive

In 2023, headwinds include (1) Rising inflationary pressures, (2) Slowing import and export activity, (3) High interest rate environment, (4) Risks from corporate bond and real estate markets will create challenges to the goal of fulfilling economic growth plans. However, we still see some intertwined positive factors that can offset these adverse factors such as (1) Exchange rate maintaining stability, (2) China opening up, and (3) Boosting public investment disbursement. Therefore, BSC believes that Vietnam's current economic indicators show that we are still in the INITIAL RECOVERY PHASE, characterized by most signs such as (1) Savings interest rates starting to trend downward, (2) Inflation peaking and under control, (3) Long-term interest rates reaching the bottom and bond prices peaking, and (4) Stock prices forming an upward trend

 BSC wishes all investors a wise, lucky and successful investment year!